Today: Greece witnesses a large (larger than yesterday) bank run. Politicians make calls for tranquility.
Tomorrow: as families come together over the weekend they discuss what is going on and decide they should make withdrawals of euros. Interim Greek PM makes a statement to the nation attempting to tranquillise the population, possibly claiming that there is no bank run, and no justification for one.
Monday: as banks reopen the amounts withdrawn will skyrocket. Over the afternoon many ways to stop the bleeding will be floated around. The news will spread across Europe. EU politicians will cry out their “effective new measures” to remedy situation, tranquillising no one. The ECB will make injections into the Greek banks.
Tuesday: Greece will try to avert setting withdrawal limits, which will only precipitate the impending collapse. The remaining PIIGS will experience increased withdrawals, albeit not in catastrophic levels. Bank shares and European stock markets will fall, and the Spanish Bankia will lead the pack with a 50% devaluation. The press will be too focused reporting on the dramatic events unfolding in Greece for there to be information bandwidth left for the national news.
Wednesday: Greece will wake up to a withdrawal limit and mass convulsions, fuelled by the far right and far left’s cries against the European axis.
Over the following ten days,
a) European leaders will announce a dramatic new measure to ensure the euro’s integrity with all current member-states;
b) said measure will fail and Greece will leave the Euro, as well as experience unprecedented uprisings;
c) the panic across the remaining PIIGS will be contained naturally as part of the population will feel that the Greek earthquake may have alleviated the tensions temporarily;
d) other European countries will witness a surprising increase in withdrawals, as the population is fed news of European banks’ exposure to the Greek mess. France will lead this pack;
e) David Cameron will express sympathy and support, but we will all know he’s secretly laughing;
f) Merkel will spin the situation to state that it was caused by Greek non-compliance; Hollande will capitalise politically against the Germans and will feel reinforced in his dangerously wrong views of Europe; talks of Greece’s exclusion from the single market, and perhaps the EU itself, will emerge;
g) talks of transnational “Euro insurance”, aimed at tranquillising the remaining PIIGS, will be heard;
h) Spain and Portugal will come together politically for matters of image;
i) Ireland will try to demonstrate with its numbers that there is no reason for it to be in the “fear pack”;
j) the people of Iceland will continue rewriting their Constitution on Facebook and pause and contemplate the change of fates that the last 5 years have brought with them;
k) Napoli will witness new attacks;
l) the Turkish European impetus will discretely but steadily fade;
m) the world psyche will definitively start viewing Europe as the bastion of instability and insecurity that it is;
n) capitalism will be further put into question by society;
o) awesome infographics will emerge, explaining some of the more impressive and depressing European statistics;
p) the European press will be flooded with articles revisiting past bank runs and currency collapses of the world;
q) this set of predictions will start being circulated, while never becoming widespread;
r) Timothy Geithner will produce annoying comments, with a fake sense of sympathy masking US satisfaction for not being Europe;
s) Buffett will make a simple comment which will be both painful and accurate; Soros, Krugman, John Gray, and others will make statements which will get much attention;
t) Russia will capitalise politically via increased relative political clout and prowess, in the face of Europe’s growing weakness;
u) Barroso’s cries will ring hollow even to the most uneducated citizens;
v) the ECB’s cluelessness will become particularly apparent as it backtracks some of its announced approaches (such as suspension of injection of liquidity into Greece);
w) the societal movement questioning the current democratic model will gain impetus, fanned by the coincidence of being Greece the first to fall;
x) marks the spot;
y) Iceland’s path will be envied by many in Europe, following reports in the press;
z) the world will continue in its unstoppable twin movements of integration and disintegration.